June 19th, 2026Kyle’s Rant
When Melbourne sneezes, the regions get a cold, although the opposite could be said during the pandemic, as Melbourne sneezed and folks decided to flock to the country.
Humans are like lemmings when it comes to trends. I remember the program Sea Change, which pretty much invented the “seachange” movement, that whole idea of ditching the city for a quieter life by the coast.
And its original filming spots, Barwon Heads and St Leonards on the Bellarine Peninsula, bore the brunt of it. Property prices went through the roof, gentrification followed close behind, and “Pearl Bay” became a real-life tourist magnet.
Local landmarks, like the boatshed everyone knew as “Diver Dan’s” is now the Heads Restaurant. And “Laura’s House” is just a little cabin at the local caravan park which turned into such a tourist drawcard that the park started actively promoting it to visitors.
Two sleepy coastal towns essentially reinvented themselves as lifestyle destinations, with cafes, shops and hospitality businesses following the lemmings in.
Victoria’s preliminary auction clearance rates are sitting somewhere in the mid-to-low 40s to 50 per cent, which is bloody low. This points to a market that’s cooled off quite a bit compared to earlier this year. Reasons include higher interest rates, tighter borrowing capacity, and the usual pre-winter slowdown all part of the mix.
One thing worth noting is the auction withdrawals in Victoria. Agents don’t generally tell you that figure has been climbing, but somewhere between 16 per cent and 18 per cent of scheduled Melbourne auctions are being pulled before they even reach the hammer.
So that means conservatively the auction clearance rate was 62 per cent made up of folks pulling out before the auction and the stuff that got sold. Which puts it into the okay but not good department, not the doom and gloom of the 40–50 per cent.
Yes, I know you think I am manipulating figures, but doesn’t everyone?
A few sources are suggesting Australia’s 30-year housing “super cycle” might finally be running out of steam. Sky-high property values, rising interest rates, and some recent federal budget tax changes have all been piling on the pressure.
That said, a genuine price crash looks unlikely — the chronic shortage of housing stock is still doing a lot of work to keep things propped up.
But think about the poor buggers who got involved with the Australian Government’s 5 per cent Deposit Scheme previously known as the Home Guarantee Scheme, which has been around since January 2020.
It got a shake-up on October 1, 2025, with the scheme dropping income limits, removing the cap on available places, and lifting property price thresholds. Meaning a whole lot of negative equity for those involved in the scheme if they sell. I am not brushing over this cohort of folks, suffice to say, sit on your hands guys and let the natural inflation catch up with the value of your homes.
But for folks who bought a home the old-fashioned way with a reasonable deposit, the truth is the market negativity doesn’t actually matter, it’s just a change in the market.
The world will keep turning, and as long as you buy and sell in the same market you should be okay. Trends come and go. In fact I am willing to bet home renovations will be on the uptick soon with people deciding it’s better to keep what they have got and shape it to their needs rather than buy something that’s a bit flashier.
Maybe there’s a director out there willing to do a Tree Change series for us. Put us even more on the map. God knows we have the characters to pull it off.
Real estate rant, over. (Next edition – a bit more of a real estate deep dive…)
